Theory and practice of diagnostics and prevention of hidden failures in complex technical systems

Abstract

The article examines the problem of diagnostics and prevention of hidden failures in complex technical systems (CTS) of transport vehicles, particularly aircraft, which possess an emergent nature and arise not at the level of individual elements but as a new property of the system as a whole. It is shown that hidden failures manifest themselves in false responses under external operability, creating hazards for operation and complicating their detection. For the first time, it has been demonstrated that the impossibility of diagnosing a hidden failure leads to the loss of controllability of the object within the logistic structure of technical operation, where time acts as the most valuable and irreversible resource. Restrictions have been developed regarding the loss of resources during failure diagnostics, which determine the feasibility of further operation of the transport vehicle.

Special attention is paid to the analysis of the logistic system of failures, which defines the efficiency of using material and technical means, personnel, and diagnostic resources. It is shown that the probability of identifying the cause of a hidden failure has a nonlinear character: initially it increases, but after a certain threshold it sharply decreases, necessitating a transition to new levels of diagnostics or replacement of the object. This process establishes constraints on time and resource expenditures, which must be considered when making decisions about continued operation.

An approach to the prevention of hidden failures is proposed, encompassing constructive, diagnostic, organizational, and analytical levels. It is demonstrated that the fault tree analysis (FTA) method is an effective tool for structured system analysis and for identifying emergent effects, when combinations of factors generate a new system property - a hidden failure. Practical examples from sensor systems and heat exchangers illustrate that hidden failures have both technical and economic dimensions, affecting measurement accuracy, product energy intensity, and operating costs of transport vehicles.

The article also considers the concept of autopoiesis as a condition for maintaining the viability of complex technical systems. The ability for self-control, self-correction, and alignment of the internal model with the actual state is defined as a key mechanism for preventing the transformation of hidden failures into explicit or catastrophic ones. Thus, the prevention of hidden failures is regarded not only as a technical task but also as a function of the logistic system, ensuring resource optimization, risk management, and reliability of transport vehicles throughout their entire life cycle.